Wednesday 3 January 2018

Gold prices drop as dollar firms

Spot gold was down 0.4 percent at $1,306.72 an ounce at 0333 GMT. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.8 percent to $1,307.80 an ounce.


Gold prices fell on Thursday after hitting a 3-1/2-month high the session before, pulled down as investors took profits and as the U.S. dollar firmed.
Spot gold was down 0.4 percent at $1,306.72 an ounce at 0333 GMT. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.8 percent to $1,307.80 an ounce.
Spot gold marked its highest since Sept. 15 at $1,321.33 on Wednesday, but then dropped as the dollar recovered from over 3-month lows. It fell further after minutes from the Federal Reserve's December policy bolstered expectations for more U.S. interest rate hikes.
That meant that gold, which had rallied $85 from nearly 5-month lows hit in mid-December, posted its first day of losses in nearly three weeks.
"People are looking to lock in some gains after a pretty strong rally over the past weeks," said ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes.
"Geopolitical issues have certainly been a huge power point of the gold's rally into the year-end ... It is going to be a U.S. dollar type story going forward with markets taking a neutral view."
The dollar was firm on Thursday in the wake of upbeat U.S. data.
U.S. factory activity increased more than expected in December, boosted by a surge in new orders growth, in a further sign of strong economic momentum at the end of 2017.
Minutes from the Fed's Dec. 12-13 meeting were seen as more hawkish than anticipated, indicating the central bank is still poised to raise interest rates several times this year.
The minutes suggested that the central bank would continue to pursue a gradual approach in raising rates but could pick up the pace if inflation accelerates.
Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates as they increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.
The short-term technical outlook was also pressuring gold prices, with the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) touching 75 on Tuesday, it highest since September 2017. An RSI above 70 indicates a commodity is overbought and could herald a price correction, analysts said.
Spot silver fell 0.8 percent to $16.99 an ounce, after hitting a six-week high on Wednesday at $17.24.
Spot platinum was down over 1 percent at $945.10.
Spot palladium dropped 0.2 percent to $1,080.97, having marked an all-time high on Tuesday at $1,096.50.

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कमोडिटी बाजार: चांदी पर दबाव, क्या करें


पिछले साल करीब 6 फीसदी की तेजी के बाद चांदी प्रेशर में आ गई है। ग्लोबल मार्केट में इसका दाम करीब 0.5 फीसदी फिसल गया है। इसका असर घरेलू बाजार में भी दिखा है। ग्लोबल मार्केट में सोने का दाम 3.5 महीने के ऊपरी स्तर से फिसल गया है। इसका दाम करीब 0.5 फीसदी नीचे आ गया है। लेकिन रुपये में कमजोरी से घरेलू बाजार में मजबूती कायम है। वहीं चांदी में करीब 0.5 फीसदी की गिरावट आई है। इसका दाम करीब 150 रुपये गिर गया है। अमेरिका में आज फेडरल रिजर्व की पिछली बैठक का ब्यौरा जारी होगा, जिसपर बाजार की नजर है।

उधर कच्चे तेल में तेजी का रुख है और ग्लोबल मार्केट में क्रूड का दाम 2.5 साल के ऊपरी स्तर पर चला गया है। नायमैक्स क्रूड 60 डॉलर और ब्रेंट 66 डॉलर के ऊपर है। ऐसे में घरेलू बाजार में भी करीब 0.5 फीसदी ऊपर कारोबार हो रहा है। आज बेस मेटल में एक्शन है। लेड को छोड़कर सभी मेटल कमजोर हैं। निकेल में गिरावट ज्यादा है।

एग्री की बात करें तो खाने के तेलों में आज लगातार तीसरे दिन तेजी जारी है। सोया और पाम तेल का दाम करीब 1 फीसदी उछल गया है। रुपये में सुस्ती और ग्लोबल मार्केट में तेजी से कीमतों को सपोर्ट मिला है। वहीं चने का दाम करीब 2.5 फीसदी ऊपर चला गया है। इसमें 4000 रुपये के ऊपर कारोबार हो रहा है। इस बीच पिछले दिनों की गिरावट के बाद आज मेंथा तेल में तेजी आई है। लेकिन मसालों में गिरावट बढ़ गई है। इलायची को छोड़कर सभी मसाले करीब 0.5 फीसदी नीचे कारोबार कर रहे हैं। आज डॉलर के मुकाबले रुपया पिछले 2.5 साल के ऊपरी स्तर से फिसल गया है। हालांकि अब दिन की शुरुआती कमजोरी थोड़ी कम हो गई है। डॉलर की कीमत 63.5 के स्तर पर आ गई है। पिछले 1 साल में रुपये में करीब 6 फीसदी की मजबूती आ चुकी है। इस दौरान डॉलर में करीब 10 फीसदी की गिरावट दर्ज हुई है।

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Oil prices near levels last seen in 2014/2015 as market tightens

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $61.76 a barrel at 0110 GMT, up 13 cents from their last close and not far off the $61.97 May, 2015 high reached the previous day.


Oil prices on Thursday remained near levels last seen in late 2014/2015, with markets tightening amid tensions in Iran and due to ongoing OPEC-led production cuts.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $61.76 a barrel at 0110 GMT, up 13 cents from their last close and not far off the $61.97 May, 2015 high reached the previous day.
Brent crude futures - the international benchmark for oil prices - were at $67.82 a barrel, down 2 cents but still not far off the $68.03 May 2015 high from the day before.

Beyond a brief intraday spike in May, 2015, these were the highest crude price levels since December, 2014, at the start of the oil price downturn.
"Oil continued its rally overnight ... The market is clearly getting more bullish on oil as inventory levels get closer to the five-year average. Geopolitical uncertainty in Iran, OPEC's third largest producer, is also helping to support the price as citizens are again protesting the government," said by William O'Loughlin, investment analyst at Australia' Rivkin Securities.
Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards have deployed forces to three provinces to put down anti-government unrest that has been ongoing for a week, their commander said on Wednesday.
In the United States, crude oil inventories fell by 5 million barrels in the week to Dec. 29 to 427.8 million barrels, industry group the American Petroleum Institute said on Wednesday.
Potentially undermining the trend towards tighter market conditions is U.S. oil production , which has risen by almost 16 percent since mid-2016, hitting 9.75 million barrels per day (bpd) at the end of last year.
Official U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage and production data is due on Thursday.
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Tuesday 2 January 2018

Oil prices close to mid-2015 highs, but doubts over further rises loom

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $60.40 a barrel at 0141 GMT, up 3 cents from their last close, and not far off the $60.74 June 2015 high reached the previous 


Oil prices were stable on Wednesday, not far off mid-2015 highs reached the previous session, as strong demand and ongoing efforts led by OPEC and Russia to curb production tightened the market.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $60.40 a barrel at 0141 GMT, up 3 cents from their last close, and not far off the $60.74 June 2015 high reached the previous day.
Brent crude futures - the international benchmark for oil prices - were at $66.55 a barrel, down 2 cents but still not far off the $67.29 May 2015 high from the previous day.

Despite this, there were indicators that markets had overshot in the last days of 2017 and trading this year, as U.S. production is set to rise further and doubts are emerging about whether demand growth can continue at current levels.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Denmark's Saxo Bank warned that "multiple but temporary supply disruptions" like the North Sea Forties and Libyan pipeline outages (and) protests across Iran ... helped create a record speculative long bet."
With the pipeline outages resolved and the protests in Iran showing no signs of impacting its oil production, Hansen said there was potential for a price downturn in early 2018, especially due to rising U.S. output.
"It is only a matter of time before the 10 million barrel per day (bpd) production target will be reached," Hansen said.
U.S. oil production has risen by almost 16 percent since mid-2016, hitting 9.75 million bpd at the end of last year.
There was also some concern that output by Russia, the world's biggest oil producer and one of the key drivers together with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in cutting supplies, was in fact not falling.
As part of the supply cut deal, Russia pledged to reduce its output by 300,000 bpd from the 30-year monthly high of 11.247 million bpd hit in October 2016, which it achieved by the second quarter of 2017, according to Russian energy ministry data.
For the whole of 2017, however, Russian output rose to an average output of 10.98 million bpd, compared with 10.96 million bpd in 2016 and 10.72 million bpd in 2015.
"We also have some concerns about the Chinese economy in 2018 that ultimately could lead to lower than expected demand growth," Hansen said.
"By year-end we see Brent crude at $60 per barrel with WTI three dollars lower at $57 per barrel."
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Gold inches up to hit 3-1/2-month highs on weaker dollar

Spot gold rose 0.2 percent to $1,320.77 an ounce at 0058 GMT, having hit its highest since Sept. 15 at $1,321.33 earlier in the session.


Gold prices edged up on Wednesday, hitting over 3-1/2-month highs, driven by a softer dollar.
FUNDAMENTALS
* Spot gold rose 0.2 percent to $1,320.77 an ounce at 0058 GMT, having hit its highest since Sept. 15 at $1,321.33 earlier in the session.
* U.S. gold futures were up 0.5 percent at $1,322.40 an ounce.
* The dollar index fell to a more than three-month low Tuesday on expectations of a slower pace of interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
* The greenback posted its biggest annual drop since 2003 in 2017, helping to lift gold to an annual increase of more than 13 percent. Bullion surged $55 an ounce in the last three weeks of 2017 alone.
* Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates because it increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.
* Technical analysts warned that gold's rally is looking overdone in the short-term.
* Key factors for the bullion market this year will be how quickly central banks normalize interest rates, how much further the equities rally goes, the longer-term impact of U.S. tax reforms, and when inflation will pick up, Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler said.
* Spot palladium jumped to a record high on Tuesday at $1,096.50 on fears of short supplies after soaring 57 percent in 2017. It was last up 0.2 percent at $1,094 an ounce early Wednesday.
* Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.14 percent to 836.32 tonnes on Tuesday from 837.50 tonnes on Friday.
* India's gold imports surged 67 percent in 2017 from the previous year to 855 tonnes as jewellers replenished inventory amid a rebound in retail demand, provisional data from precious metals consultancy GFMS showed.
* Spot gold may break a resistance at $1,326 per ounce and rise towards the next resistance at $1,380 in three months, as suggested by its wave pattern and a Fibonacci ratio analysis, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.
* Asian stocks struck a fresh decade high on Wednesday as risk appetites were whetted by a bevy of upbeat manufacturing surveys that confirmed a synchronised upturn in world growth was well under way.
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